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Another
invaluable use of REFS On-line is for portfolio reviews. Every
month it is well worthwhile reviewing each and every share
in your portfolio to see if there has been a major change
that may have gone unnoticed on a more day-to-day basis.
Check
the relative strength during the previous month. If this is
poor, then check the last three months and the last year.
A quick look at the OUTLOOK and NEWSFLOW
indicates whether there have been any price-sensitive announcements.
The panel
of brokers' estimates, recommendations and the consensus should
always be checked in detail. The plus and minus signs indicate
the estimates that have been changed during the month.
The lines
at the bottom, showing the one-month and three-month changes
indicate the overall percentage change during the previous
month and the previous three months.
A trend
of downward revisions is very bad news, especially if it is
accompanied by poor relative strength. This is usually enough
to consider selling immediately.
The KEY
STATISTICS should always be reviewed because there
are so many variables involved: the share price, growth rate
and EPS forecast are of particular importance.
For example,
a substantial rise in the share price during the month, coupled
with a small downward revision of the earnings forecasts making
up the consensus value, can impact the PER
and Growth statistics and consequently dramatically change
the PEG.
A useful
extra discipline is to prepare a master portfolio (every month
or every three months) showing the average of each key statistic
in your portfolio. This is simply constructed by listing each
share together with its key statistics, adding the columns,
and then dividing by the number of different shares in the
portfolio.
To be
more sophisticated, weighting of the portfolio can be brought
into the equation if required. The resultant average figures
can then be compared with each constituent of the existing
portfolio and, equally importantly, with new candidates.
This helps
to highlight if a particular share is a worthwhile hold, buy
or sell.
The SHARE
CAPITAL, HOLDINGS panel tells you immediately if
any of the directors have been buying or selling any shares.
Institutional dealings are also of interest, especially if
a really major shareholder has begun to lessen its stake and
might have many more shares left to sell.
The other
key statistics, such as gearing, should also be quickly scanned
to make sure that there has been no major change during the
month.
Finally, have a look at the tables in REFS On-line to see
if any of your shares have had a major change of relative
position during the month.
Sometimes,
changes are imperceptible on a day-to-day basis, so it makes
sense to make sure, for example, that their PERs
are not creeping into the high end of the tables - a sign
that they are becoming favourites of the market.
Also
have a close look at each of your shares by filtering by sector.
Sometimes one is unaware of a gradual change taking place
in a sector as a whole. It is advisable to review your shares
regularly in their natural context (i.e. their sector) to
get a fix on their relative attractions.
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REFS
is a mine of invaluable information for the private
investor. 
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