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Forecasts overtaken by preliminary results

When a preliminary result is announced, any existing consensus forecast for the next period is immediately rendered out of date, and must be treated with caution. While revised forecasts are awaited from brokers, based on newly-available information, the individual components of the consensus forecast for the following period may still be valid, as long as the superseded forecast proved to be accurate. In this event, the growth rate is the percentage difference between the newly announced preliminary EPS, adjusted to a normalised basis, and the remaining, yet to be revised, consensus forecast for the following period.

However, when a preliminary announcement appears to render the existing consensus forecast invalid, it is not used at all. This rule is applied when the actual result for the current year differs from previous expectations by more than 5%.


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