REFS is
a mine of invaluable information for the private investor.
Selecting shares without its help is like trying to
clap with one hand tied behind your back.
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Forecast
elements excluded from the consensus
The appearance
of any suffix against a given forecast, apart from '+' or '-'
indicating an upward or downward revision, denotes exclusion
from the consensus. The following suffix codes explain the reason
why that forecast is excluded:
w
Warning, i.e. the company's recent announcement of a 'profit
warning' has
overtaken
the forecast, and a revised forecast is awaited.
s
Structural change in the company, such as a merger or de-consolidation,
rendersthe
forecast obsolete.
a
Age - the forecast is old and is overtaken by events, for example
it is out of line
with a subsequent
interim announcement.
r
Results actually achieved have overtaken the forecast. This
most often appears
when preliminary
results are announced after the date of the forecast, and the
actual result
for the period is materially different from what is expected.
When
this difference
is more than 5%, the forecast is excluded from the consensus.
If the EPS
forecast is within 5% of the actual result, but the dividend
forecast
is not, then
the dividend forecast alone is excluded.
d
Different basis.
b
Broker is disqualified temporarily from issuing a new forecast
by reason of
currently
acting for the company in a transaction, e.g. a rights issue,
or an
acquisition.
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